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The costs of wind energy are going to drop considerably in future due to technology & commercial advancement , according to a survey led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) of the world’s foremost wind power experts. Experts anticipate cost reductions of 17%-35% by 2035 and 37%-49% by 2050, driven by bigger and more efficient turbines, lower capital and operating costs, and other advancements.

The study summarizes a global survey of 140 wind experts on three wind applications – onshore (land-based) wind, fixed-bottom offshore wind, and floating offshore wind. “Wind has experienced accelerated cost reductions in recent years, both onshore and offshore, making previous cost forecasts obsolete. The energy sector needs a current assessment,” said Ryan Wiser, senior scientist at Berkeley Lab.

Under a “best guess” scenario, experts anticipate 17%-35% reductions in the levelized cost of energy by 2035 and 37%-49% reductions by 2050.  Levelized costs reflect the average cost of energy per unit of electricity output over the lifetime of an electricity plant and are useful for evaluating technology progress.

There are five key factors that impact the levelized cost of energy: upfront capital cost, on-going operating costs, capacity factor, project design life, and cost of financing. Experts anticipate continued improvements across all dimensions, with the relative contribution varying by wind application. “Forecasts that consider only improvements in capital cost will, at best, capture about 45% of the cost reduction opportunity,” noted study co-author Joe Rand, also of Berkeley Lab.

A key driver in these improvements is turbine size, according to experts. The new study finds that cost reductions have accelerated in recent years: faster than previously predicted by most forecasters, and faster than historical rates of decline. The experts surveyed anticipate future reductions and growing use of value-enhancement measures, both for onshore wind and offshore wind.

“All else being equal, these trends will enable wind to play a larger role in global energy supply than previously thought while facilitating energy-sector decarbonization,” said co-author Joachim Seel, also with Berkeley Lab.

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Mr Mashood Ali Khan, Director Exports Mehran Commercial Enterprises has urged the government to craft a new Electric Vehicle (EV) policy to boost technology and produce parts to export from Pakistan besides creating avenues of incentives for those OEMs who will plan to export left-hand drive vehicles to European Countries.

“In this regard, infrastructure has already been built by way of Gwadar port which is strategically connecting Pakistan with European terrain and will turn out to be a competitive advantage for our country,” he said while talking to Business Recorder.

The government should associate all OEMs to channelize local auto parts manufacturer to enter in global supply chain within a period of five years and the government should develop an international market research center for the identification of untapped markets and for nourishment of the automotive industry.

“We can surely start an export coaching program for auto parts manufacturers to train them in line with international market norms and procedures reseña.  The government should focus on ONE Model to pick that model for maximizing localization on quality standards and give incentives for export,” he said.

“In order to uplift the auto sector, it is of utmost importance that government should give incentives DTRG to auto parts manufacturers and ensure that norms and procedures should be devised to reach to the end beneficiary in time,” he maintained.

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